Taking a look back at 2008, experts now realize that the country was in a recession the entire year, possibly kicking in as early as November 2007. Some experts believe that we’ll begin to see relief later this year, perhaps as soon as June. However, there is one person, Med Yones — President of the International Institute of Management (IIM) — who doesn’t expect that recovery will begin for another year.
News like this can be disheartening, but our country has gone through economic downturns in the past, some lasting several years. The problem today is that mostly all workers who are younger than 40 have no recollection of a recession this deep with baby boomers and retirees remembering the tough economic times of the 1970s to early 1980s.
For his part, Med Yones is saying that he first called the current recession back in January 2007, following President Bush’s state of the union address. Yones published a paper — U.S. Economic Risks and Strategies for 2007-2017 Policy White Paper – IIM Working Papers — which outlined the problems facing the US economy two years ago that have led to today’s sharp downturn.
According to Med Yones, “We warned most of them about 2 years ago, yet no one was willing to listen until the markets took their first big hit in early 2007. Since that time, the policy paper was viewed more than 250,000 times by researchers, media analysts, and investors.
The 3 most common questions are:
(1) How did we get here?
(2) Why did our top experts miss it?
(3) When do you think the economy will recover?
The short answers are:
(1) Spending on credit without enough production to pay it back
(2) Groupthink mindset, and
(3) We’ll experience more volatility in 2009 on the way to the bottom of the correction cycle. A modest recovery will start in 2010/2011.
The more detailed answers can be found at: http://www.iim-edu.org/news/topexpertswhopredicteduseconomiccrisis.htm
Though Yones’ initial prediction may seem to have been ignored, he contends that several media sources did pick up on his earlier statement. He cites Reuters, Fox News, Financial Post Canada, Handelsblatt Germany, Le Point France, China Times, Malaysia Sun, and the New Zealand Herald among the media outlets who carried his story.
So what does this mean to the average consumer in layman’s terms? Answer: expect the worse. This year, we’re likely to hear some of the most amazing promises from elected officials, people who insist that they know when the economy will rebound.
However, given the current economic climate and the lack of clarity from politicians and economists, Yones’ newest prediction is certainly worth noting.
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Source: International Institute of Management
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